Colchicine Acute Poisoning: Prediction of the Probability of Mortality on Hospital Admission Using a Nomogram – A Bicentric Retrospective Cohort Study

AZZURRA SCHICCHI, Alberto L Malovini, Sebastian Voicu, Pietro Papa, Isabelle Malissin, Nicolas Deye, Valeria M Petrolini, Davide Lonati, Laurence Labat, Carlo A Locatelli, Bruno Megarbane

Resumen


Background: Acute colchicine poisoning carries high mortality. Early identification of high-risk patients is crucial for timely intervention. The prognostic value of plasma colchicine concentration (ColC) remains poorly understood.
Objective: To develop a nomogram predicting in-hospital mortality in acute colchicine poisoning using admission ColC and time since ingestion.
Methods: A retrospective, bicentric cohort study (2000-2020) of colchicine-poisoned patients from a French toxicological critical care department and an Italian poison control centre was conducted. Data from published cases were included for validation. Multivariate logistic regression models were developed using admission ColC (ng/mL), time from ingestion to ColC measurement (h), and in-hospital mortality as the outcome.
Results: A nomogram was developed using data from 52 patients (training dataset) and validated on three independent test datasets (n=25, 13, and 16, respectively). The nomogram accurately identified high-risk patients.
Conclusions: This nomogram provides a valuable tool for early risk stratification in acute colchicine poisoning, aiding in prompt, aggressive management within the emergency department.

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